A robust optimization model for stochastic aggregate production planning

STEPHEN C. H. LEUNG and YUE WU

MRPII 31

Abstract.

The aggregate production planning (APP) problem considers the medium-term production loading plans subject to certain restrictions such as production capacity and workforce level. It is not uncommon for management to often encounter uncertainty and noisy data, in which the variables or parameters are stochastic.

In this paper, a robust optimization model is developed to solve the aggregate production planning problems in an environment of uncertainty in which the production cost, labour cost, inventory cost, and hiring and layoff cost are minimized.

By adjusting penalty parameters, decision-makers can determine an optimal medium-term production strategy including production loading plan and workforce level while considering different economic growth scenarios. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed model.

The proposed model is realistic for dealing with uncertain economic conditions. The analysis of the tradeoff between solution robustness and model robustness is also presented.

Keywords Aggregate production planning, robustness, stochastic programming