Alternative Methods Of Estimating Rural Consumers’ Daily Demand For Electrical Energy

Ma?gorzata Trojanowska

Department of Agricultural Energetics,

Agricultural University of Cracow Balicka

Str. 116B, 30-149 Kraków, Poland

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MRPII 21

Summary

In this paper, the author presented fuzzy models with the inference of the Takagi-Sugeno type regarding trapezoidal adherences functions in models input spaces of hourly predicted demands for electrical energy for rural consumers, as the characteristic group of consumers, and also checked their usability to load predictions calculated in twenty-four hours’ advance.

Because of the load inconstancy character, the author elaborated separate models for typical week days.

They demonstrated that fuzzy models satisfactorily describe electrical energy hourly demand for rural consumers even in periods of time characterized by large variability of this demand and those predictions let to construct good quality prognoses.

Key words: electricity, short-term forecasting, fuzzy models.